港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析          下载免费PDF全文

王培涛  闪迪  侯京明  王岗  高义  任智源  范婷婷  王宗辰  王君成 《地球物理学报》2018,61(4):1325-1340

一直以来，海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用，特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说，这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中，海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流，可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害，进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此，全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征，探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法，发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性，大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证，可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程，针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m），并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征，波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好，精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅，同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大，这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关；相比海啸波幅空间特征，海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性；海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强，海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性；不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差，合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后，希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征，拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度，从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯框架的各向异性页岩储层岩石物理反演技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘财  符伟  郭智奇  刘喜武  刘宇巍 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2589-2600

页岩岩石物理建模旨在建立页岩矿物组分、微观结构、流体填充与岩石弹性参数的关系.对四川盆地龙马溪组页岩进行岩石物理建模研究，针对页岩黏土含量高、层间微裂缝发育等特点，利用Backus平均理论描述页岩黏土矿物弹性参数，利用Chapman理论计算与水平微裂缝有关的VTI各向异性，并利用Bond变换考虑地层倾角的影响.提出以黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比为拟合参数进行岩石物理反演的方法，并引入贝叶斯框架减小反演的多解性.由已知的黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比作为先验信息，并以测井纵、横波速度作为约束条件建立反演的目标函数，同时利用粒子群算法进行最优化搜索.计算结果表明，基于先验约束和粒子群算法的反演方法能够较准确地反演黏土矿物的弹性参数、孔隙形态参数以及裂缝密度等参数.计算得到的黏土纵、横波速度较高，并且在一定范围内变化，这可能与龙马溪组页岩的黏土矿物组分中具有较高弹性模量的伊利石含量较高有关，同时也与黏土定向排列等微观物性特征有关.反演得到的裂缝密度与纵波各向异性参数ε呈明显的正相关，而与横波各向异性参数γ相关性较小.另外，页岩各向异性参数与黏土垂向的纵横波速度有较强的相关性.  相似文献   

2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0强震的余震重定位及主震震源机制反演          下载免费PDF全文

梁姗姗  雷建设  徐志国  徐锡伟  邹立晔  刘敬光  陈宏峰 《地球物理学报》2018,61(5):2163-2175

本文采用双差定位法对2017年8月8日至10月31日期间四川九寨沟M_S7.0主震及5200个余震序列进行相对定位，得到4036个重定位地震事件.采用中国区域地震台网观测到的宽频带垂直分向波形数据和W震相反演方法，得到了主震震源机制解.重定位结果显示，余震序列分别沿NNW和SSE两个方向扩展，展布长度约58 km，且这些余震主要集中在22 km深度之上.余震分布的另一个重要特点是具有分区特性，即在主震NNW方向约5 km处存在明显的西北和东南两区余震活动分界线；西北区的余震由深至浅具有较好连续性，而东南区却在约10 km深度处存在不连续性.余震分布的这种分区特征，说明九寨沟地震震源区的地壳结构存在强烈的不均匀性.余震分布与主震破裂特征的一致性，证实了我们定位结果的可靠性.主震的震源机制解展示出节面Ⅰ的走向/倾角/滑动角分别为246°/83.7°/-177°，而节面Ⅱ的走向/倾角/滑动角为155.7°/87.1°/-6.3°，最佳质心深度为15.5 km，矩震级M_W为6.5.根据余震分布较为垂直和主震震源机制解两节面的倾角均在80°以上，并结合野外地质调查结果，推测此次九寨沟地震为与节面Ⅱ参数相近的一次高角度的左旋走滑型事件.  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE SEISMOGENIC FAULT CHARACTERSTICS OF 2016 M_W5.9 MENYUAN EARTHQUAKE BASED ON Sentinel -1A DATA     

ZHENG Bo-wen  GONG Wen-yu  WEN Shao-yan  ZHANG Ying-feng  SHAN Xin-jian  SONG Xiao-gang  LIU Yun-hua 《地震地质》2018,40(4):872-882

In this paper, we processed and analyzed the Sentinel-1A data by "two-pass" method and acquired the surface deformation fields of Menyuan earthquake. The results show the deformation occurred mainly in the south wall of fault, where uplift deformation is dominant. The uplift deformation is significantly larger than the subsidence and the maximum uplift of ascending and descending in the LOS is 6cm, 8cm respectively. Meanwhile, based on the Okada model, we use the ascending and descending passes data as constraints to invert jointly the fault distribution and source parameters through constructing fault model of different dip directions. The optimum fault parameters are:The dip is 43°, the strike is 128°with the mean rake of 85°. The maximum slip is about 0.27m. The inverted seismic moment M₀ is 1.13×10¹⁸N·m, and the moment magnitude M_W is 5.9. The SW-dipping Minyue-Damaying Fault is possibly the seismogenic fault, based on the comprehensive analysis of the focal mechanisms, aftershocks relocation results and the regional tectonic background. The focus property is dominated by thrust movement with a small amount of dextral strike-slip component. The earthquake is the result of local stress adjustment nearby the Lenglongling Fault under the background of northeastward push and growth of Tibet Plateau.  相似文献   

地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险评价研究   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李天华  袁永博 《地震工程学报》2018,40(1):111-115

为了揭示地震重灾区与次生地质灾害的关联性,以某地震灾区为例,在分析次生地质灾害类型与危害的基础上,通过计算一次泥石流总量及流量确定其危险度,并引入易损性指数,确定各评价单元次生山地灾害的易损性大小,设置评价指标;结合研究区实际,采用层次分析法构建次生地质灾害风险评价模型,对地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害风险进行评价。实验以次生地质灾害中的泥石流产生的灾害风险为例进行研究,结果表明,采用本文研究方法可在有效确定地震重灾区诱发次生地质灾害的位置方面具有一定优势,但在纵向地震造成次生地质灾害风险评价方面需进一步进行研究。  相似文献   

福建仙游震群序列发震构造分析研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

秦双龙  邱毅 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1306-1311

福建仙游地区自2010年8月开始出现地震序列活动,2012年地震活动水平有所提高,2013年以来地震活动水平进一步提高,ML3.0以上地震集中活跃。福建数字化地震台网对这些地震进行了较完整的监测,记录到丰富的观测资料。通过利用P、S波到时数据对ML≥1.0地震序列进行重新定位,发现地震序列空间位置和震源深度呈现出不同的时段性分布特征。同时利用福建数字化地震台网记录到的波形资料,采用"剪切-粘贴"法,获取了ML≥3.5的震源机制解和最佳震源深度。通过震群序列活动特征、震源位置分布、震源区断层活动分布以及震源机制解特征综合判断认为:仙游震群序列为库水下渗促使断裂滑动引起的构造地震,属于水库诱发型构造型地震,发震构造为穿过库区的NW向石苍断裂。  相似文献   

2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震后地质灾害发育分布特征          下载免费PDF全文

杨秀元  姚亚辉 《地震工程学报》2018,40(5):1078-1083

2014年云南鲁甸“8·03”M_S6.5地震造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失，诱发了大量滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害。基于对鲁甸县龙头山幅（G48E006006）地质灾害调查数据和对典型地质灾害的剖析，震后地质灾害发育分布有特征如下：（1）震后地质灾害较震前成倍增长，震前地质灾害多以中小型浅层崩滑为主，地震诱发了诸如甘家寨、红石岩等大型—特大型滑坡、崩塌，大量沟谷崩滑堆积物为泥石流储备了丰富的物源；（2）震中高烈度区域地质灾害密度大，沿发震断裂带NNE—NE向构造密集发育，震中区龙头山镇地质灾害发育最为集中；（3）地质灾害呈带状分布，明显受控于河流水系（牛栏江、沙坝河、龙泉河等）、公路（昭巧二级公路、沙乐公路）等线性地貌单元和线性工程，人类活动影响明显。  相似文献   

2013年岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究     

王熠熙  李赫  王博  杨朋涛  王俊  向阳  王喜龙  李悦 《地震》2018,38(1):128-138

基于临界慢化理论, 以2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前南北构造带及邻区水氡浓度观测资料为例, 逐一计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数和方差。 研究结果表明, 2013年岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前, 10个台点水氡浓度资料表现出较明显的临界慢化现象, 且出现慢化现象的观测点空间分布具有一定丛集性, 慢化持续时间呈现出由南向北迁移的特征。 综合分析认为, 临界慢化方法可以有效识别水氡资料蕴含的慢化信息, 这些早期异常信号对判定前兆异常所处阶段以及深入理解前兆资料变化的物理内涵具有重要的科学意义。  相似文献   

历史大地震断层滑动模型的建立及其对同震数值计算的影响——以1920年宁夏海原M_S8.5大地震为例          下载免费PDF全文

邓园浩  程惠红  张贝  张怀  石耀霖 《地球物理学报》2018,61(3):975-987

大地震的发生会引起区域位移场和应力场发生变化，进而改变区域内及临近断层的应力状态和地震活动性.目前，研究学者可据已有的断层滑动模型来计算分析大地震同震应力变化，同时采用库仑应力触发理论来进一步分析震后余震分布和断层危险性.然而，历史上曾经发生过不少大地震，例如，1920年的海原M_S8.5大地震，是全球范围内少见的特大地震之一.局限于无确切的地震台站地震波等资料，前人在研究历史地震的影响时往往给出一些简单的断层滑动模型，将断层面上错动量视为均匀分布.为更准确地了解历史地震对后续地震的影响，基于前人研究和一般地震滑动形态分布规律及地震反射剖面等资料，以海原M_S8.5大地震为例，探讨了如何建立海原大地震断层滑动模型，并分别搭建了简单断层滑动模型和复杂断层滑动模型的全球同震横向不均匀并行椭球型地球模型.通过对海原M_S8.5地震的同震位移场和应力场的计算，发现采用复杂断层滑动模型比简单断层滑动模型地表位错分布更切合实际.同时，进一步计算和分析了此次大地震对青藏高原东北缘近100年历史地震和周围断层的应力触发作用，得出断层滑动模型对同震计算结果的影响集中在发震断层附近而对远场影响较小.  相似文献   

A SYSTEM OF CAPACITIVE HIGH-VOLTAGE PULSE RECHARGE/DISCHARGE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON EXPERIMENTALLY TRIGGERED EARTHQUAKE     

ZHANG Zhi-he  GUO Yan-shuang  CHEN Shun-yun 《地震地质》2018,40(6):1417-1426

An external small disturbance may trigger seismic events when the fault is in a critical state. The problems related with earthquakes triggered by the dynamic stress such as blasting loads, impact loads, volcanic eruptions and strong earthquakes, have usually drawn wide concerns in earthquake science, and the corresponding research contents are quite extensive, including earthquake triggering mechanisms, triggering earthquake uncertainty, aftershock triggering, and so on. Among them, experimental research is an important way to understand the stress triggering conditions and physical mechanisms, such as the influence of load disturbance on fault friction traits, the influence of periodic disturbance of tidal stress on fault instability, etc., all of which can be gained through experimental investigations. Among them, "how to trigger" is a basic scientific problem to increase the understanding of earthquake prediction theory, thus receiving more attention. There are also some studies that focus on "what happened after the trigger", that is, the sliding instability generated by the triggering method, and then the evolution characteristics of the sliding instability process. The well-known experimental study of the super-shear rupture process is conducted by using the electric explosion method to trigger the fault instability, and the high-speed camera records the super-shear rupture during the fault instability. This means that when the trigger source is controllable, it is possible to generate different types of instability processes, and then to explore which earthquakes will be triggered at different time and space positions under different stress states by means of active triggering. The study of stability analysis and instability process has important scientific significance.A stable system of capacitive high-voltage pulse discharge and recharge is one of basic techniques for studying the triggered earthquakes in laboratory. Based on the wire electric explosion method, this paper develops a controllable trigger experiment system. By designing a new capacitive high-voltage pulse charge and discharge system, while considering the actual needs of monitoring and system timing, multiple functions are integrated into one system. Functionally, in addition to realizing the dynamic loading and unloading function of the wire electric explosion method, the discharge process can be monitored, and the triggering, synchronization and timing signal output is performed with other observation systems, thus realizing the whole process monitoring of the dynamic disturbance action. After testing, the following functions are achieved:1)The voltage and current of the high-voltage charging power supply system can be automatically adjusted, and the system can be shut off after charging; 2)Control modes include manual and remote controls. These two modes can control the recharge, release and pulse discharge of the high voltage capacitor; 3)The system can produce multi-channel synchronous output, which satisfy multiple systems working together. In particular, the remote sensing method greatly improves the experimental maneuverability and security; 4)The system has multiple sets of gas discharge tube to trigger discharge, with a wide range of discharge voltage of 500~5 000V; 5)Roche coil resistance integral current detection can meet the transient resistance, large current detection. Test results indicate that this system has good repeatability and stability with the same discharge energy and discharge energy regulator, which is conducive to carry out single channel trigger of high-pressure discharge experiment. In short, the new charging and discharging system can meet the requirements of experimental study of triggering earthquake. In addition, this system can be used to generate the stress disturbance under certain static and dynamic conditions, and then judge whether this kind of mechanical conditions in active fault systems is currently stable.In short, a controllable single-shot discharge system is developed by a capacitive high-voltage pulse discharge system, which provides a good technical basis for experimental research on triggering earthquakes. In addition, the new system also has application significance:1)multiple triggering output can simultaneously start multiple systems and improve the efficiency of observation. Fault instability is a characteristic of transient response, so, its observation requires high-speed acquisition equipment, which is difficult to control on observation; the trigger system is controllable, with active synchronization observation using physical parameters; 2)stress disturbance can be triggered under static and dynamic loads to detect the safety and stability of the fault system with active trigger.  相似文献